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Mortgage rates are hovering around 6.3–6.4% for 30-year fixed loans in October 2025, while housing inventory is rising and price growth is slowing, creating more opportunities for buyers.
Here’s a detailed snapshot of the current real estate and mortgage market landscape:
🏠 Real Estate Market Trends – October 2025
Home prices have plateaued: After years of rapid growth, price increases have slowed to their lowest levels since mid-2023. Bidding wars are rare, and list prices are mostly flat.
Inventory is rising: Especially in the South and West, housing supply has returned to pre-pandemic levels, giving buyers more options and reducing competition.
Regional disparities:
South & West: Inventory up 4.3% and 9.3% above pre-pandemic levels.
Midwest & Northeast: Still facing shortages, with inventory down 40% and 51.1% respectively.
Equity gains for long-term homeowners: Many owners have seen their home values triple since 2000, creating substantial wealth and potential for strategic selling.
💰 Mortgage Market Update – October 2025
Current rates:
30-year fixed mortgage: ~6.34%–6.44%
15-year fixed mortgage: ~5.4%–5.72%
Refinance rates: Slightly higher than purchase rates; 30-year refi averages 6.46%
Federal Reserve influence:
A rate cut in September (0.25%) was already priced into mortgage rates.
Another cut is expected in late October, which could lead to further rate declines—but may already be anticipated by markets.
Economic indicators:
Labor market weakening: Private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, which may pressure rates downward.
Inflation concerns: Still present, but moderating, which could support lower rates over time.
📈 Forecasts and Buyer Outlook
Rates likely to trend downward: Experts predict rates may end 2025 between 5.7% and 6.4%, but staying above 6% for most of the year.
California Markets Outlook:
Home sales projected to rise 10.5% in 2025.
Median home price expected to increase 4.6% to $909,400.
Affordability remains a challenge, with only 16% of households able to afford a median-priced home.
The California real estate market is currently experiencing a cooling trend characterized by a slight year-over-year median price decline, fewer homes sold, and increased inventory. While high mortgage rates continue to pose a challenge, a market crash is not expected, with forecasts predicting a rebound in sales and modest price increases for 2025 and 2026, partly due to low housing inventory and a potential return of buyers and sellers to the market.
